On top of dispelling the notion that equities aren't priced based on fundamentals, this simple chart has provided a very effective fair value metric for four years running.  And it's implying higher.

Initial claims & the unemployment rate:

This long-standing relationship confirms what we see in the unemployment statistics.  We've previous written that this gap would converge, and weren't taken too seriously at the time.

Initial claims & payroll growth:

The extremely low turnover (from the BLS Labor Turnover Survey) means that the drop in initial claims likely directly relates to payroll growth.

Initial claims & household liabilities: